HoopSpeak Live 30: The Clips

Man, that was a huge post. Wish I could go back and edit some crappy transitions, but alas. I should have typed it up in Word...

Beckley - Since Zach dodged your Bacon Challenge, I'll engage. I don't think Blake Griffin has a shot at generating much MVP buzz. To signpost, I'm going to go through what I think are Griffin's most likely paths to MVP-hood and then I'm going to explain why I think KD's got a better shot at all of those. Griffin's Possible Paths: 1) Best Player, Period. 2) Best Player on the Team with the Best Record. 3) The Guy Responsible for a Suprising Contender. 1) "Best Player, Period." Nobody's going to vote for Griffin on the basis of this argument. He's plainly not a Lebron or Dwight Howard yet and even if he will be, he won't be aknowledged as such in general until he's owned it for a few years (like Lebron vs Kobe, a couple of years back). 2) "Best Player on team with Best Record." To get this one, the Clippers are going to have to ride Vinny Del Negro like some sort of bizarro phoenix to the actual BEST record in the league. But most accounts don't see the Clippers as true contenders yet, and not to get ahead of myself, CP3 is often called the best guy at his position. Blake Griffin hasn't earned that respect. 3) "The Guy Responsible for a Surprising Contender" Here is where bringing in the best PG in the game hurts Blake Griffin's chances. If the Clippers do really well, are we going to be talking about how the best point guard in the league makes everybody on his new team better or are we going to talk about how Blake Griffin got it together and brought his lottery team into the playoffs for the second time in 30 years? If anything, I see a narrative in place for Chris Paul to make an MVP run: the Clippers are gonna get a lot better on offense and he's gonna be the NEW GUY running the team! CP3 is a legit superstar while Blake Griffin is still coming into his own. If Lebron or D-Wade had joined the Bulls in 2010, Derrick Rose would not be getting 30% of the cap right now. For many of the same reasons that Steve Nash got all the credit over Amare (perhaps even MORE so), CP3 is going to get the credit for bringing Griffin and Del Negro's lottery mess to the playoffs. *** Now, since you weren't arguing that Griffin was going to GET the MVP this year, just get more than KD, I'll go through it with KD like I said I would. 1) "Best Player, Period." KD doesn't have much shot at this one either. Everybody wanted last year to be his dominant year but he's just not Lebron or Howard. He's in the same boat with Griffin on this one, at least until one of them become a dominant defender. 2) "Best Guy on Team with Best Record" KD definitely has a better shot at this than Griffin. First, between he and Westbrook, he's the franchise guy on the team. Fairly or not, people want Westbrook to get out of KD's way -- never vice versa. Now, I think the Thunder have better odds at coming out of the West on top -- they've got better depth, more talent, fewer injury risks, and years worth of playing with each other (something that helps when you've got an abbreviated training camp). 3) "Guy who gets the credit on a surprisingly good team" Maybe the WCF losers aren't going to surprise everybody by being real good, but at least KD is positioned as the most popular and perceived as the most talented guy on his team. Russell Westbrook isn't going to get any "new guy" credit and the prevailing opinion is that he needs to get the ball into KD's hands more. That's not something folks say about the alpha dog, is it? So, to summarize, neither KD nor Griffin are likely to get any "best player, period" votes. Plus, team success matters a LOT in MVP voting and being the guy who gets credited for that success is equally critical. KD is in the driver's seat on a better, deeper team while BG is sitting in the sidecar on a feel-good "not your Dad's Clippers" narrative. If KD gets hurt or goes all "Kobe in Colorado" on us, then, well, you still can't say "I told you so." ------------- Notable point: Griffin might get more *all-star* votes than KD purely because he's in LA and the Lakers are ramping up to disappoint, but otherwise, the market isn't going to help much. It's usually team success and a credit-hogging feel-good narrative that gets a guy MVP votes.

For what it's worth -- AR's "top 5 plays" reel was pretty bad. He's athletic, for sure, but it generally did nothing to refute Zach's contentions. The #1 most awesome play on his highlight reel was an alley oop in transition... over Derek Fisher.