Bobcats vs. Wildcats: Who wins?

Yes, it’s that time of year, time for the cliche, “Would the best college team beat the worst pro team?” argument. This is a trope that infuriates NBA fans, and for good reason. Great college players often come to the pros and get exposed. The level of NBA talent is so much higher, the men are so much more developed in terms of physique and skill.

And yet, I do believe that this year is unique. I believe that Kentucky could beat Charlotte (in this hypothetical scenario that will never happen). Before you recoil, before you dismiss this as ignorance born from not quite understanding just how talented NBA players are, just know: The Bobcats might be the worst team in NBA history.

Yes, this is about Charlotte more than Kentucky. I can certainly wax ecstatic about Anthony Davis, whom I believe to be a once-in-a-decade talent. I can certainly praise how Michael Kidd-Gilchrist slashes the court till it splinters and bleeds. But their college greatness is far outdone by Charlotte’s NBA awfulness.

Right now, the Bobcats have a -14.5 point differential. Nobody has been worse than negative double figures since the 99′-00′ Clippers (-10.7). Over the broad scope of NBA history, only the 92′-93′ Mavericks had a worse point differential at -15.2. So this is not a simple, “best college team vs. worst pro team,” debate. This may be  a “best college team vs. worst pro team ever” debate.

If you don’t fear etching your corneas, look at this Bobcats roster. D.J. Augustin might be their best player, but he’s ranked  No. 141 in PER. Rookie Kemba Walker has a slightly higher PER, but he’s shooting .367 on the season. If you favor a non-PER argument, Charlotte is the second-worst team in defensive efficiency. That they can be this bad and not be No. 30 speaks to just how terrible the offense is in totality. The offensive efficiency gap between Charlotte and the 29th worst offense (Washington), is wider than the gap between Washington and 18th ranked Milwaukee. Subjectively, in the abstract: Any player on this roster could be sent to the D-League and it would not shock me.

So this is not an NBA team, these Bobcats. This is a notional NBA team. It is an NBA team only because it is a collection of people who happen to be in a certain location at a certain time, dressed a certain way. In contrast, Kentucky has two players (Davis and MKG) who would probably be in the league were it not for an age limit restriction. Both Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist are up for a Wooden award and they could easily be picks 1-2 in the 2012 draft. Kentucky also boasts another player in Terrence Jones whom the lockout likely dissuaded from being a 2011 lottery pick. The Wildcats are a one-and-done fueled factory, a quasi pro team in the eyes of many. Perhaps both Cats’ teams are notional to their respective leagues, which is why Kentucky could win.


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Annnnnnd the Bobcats win, beating the Magic for a 2nd time. Holy Biyombo

Role players matter. Even with two really good players, college teams are stuffed with guys that simply can't play. Past the top one or two guys, a college roster is exceedingly thin. That'll take its toll over 48 minutes. I'm all for hating on the Bobcats, but they managed to beat 5 pro teams this year. I don't see an amateur squad pulling that off.

@ Warriorsablaze 'citing Maggette, Tyrus, and Kemba’s stats against NBA talent this season isn’t strengthening your argument about how they would play against college talent' Why not? Guys get worse, get washed up. Can't reference their college stats forever. I keep hearing "NBA players," against "NBA players." Who says Charlotte has those?

citing Maggette, Tyrus, and Kemba's stats against NBA talent this season isn't strengthening your argument about how they would play against college talent. Even if you believe that the big 3 Wildcats will all be immediate stars (or even starters) in the NBA (they won't be), the bench of any NBA team consists of former college studs who would run circles around players 4-15 on the Kentucky. Maggette would throw these kids around like rag dolls and end up shooting 45 FTs in the contest. I'll take the Bobcats by 20+ in 9/10 games, with the 10th win being by 19.

I should clarify I'm not saying Davis is going to be a bust like Thomas pretty much is. What I'm saying is at this point in his career he's pretty much exactly where LSU Ty Thomas was.

I didn't use Kemba's PER against him. I used it against his team. You could make the argument that he's their best player. If that's the case, then I have quite the case. Don't mean to seem snarky and I do appreciate the comments.

Maggette has been injured but effective when healthy. I'm assuming this make believe game is being played in a bubble when both teams are 100%? You can't use Kemba's PER against NBA defenses against him while UK is blasting middle of the road college teams. In this contest he's going against college defenders right? Can't hold his NBA stats against him. Kemba had one of the most dominating runs we've seen in college bball in quite sometime. I choose not to hold that abomination of a basketball contest that was UConn/Butler against him. The guy is a player. Lastly, Ty Thomas was a very successful college player who went high in the draft. Exactly what Davis is/will be and the argument you are using to pump Davis up. So what makes Davis such a lock to be a stud and dominate the Bobcats? Not to mention their college stats are pretty similar... Thomas - 12.3 PPG 9.2 RPG 3.1 BPG Davis - 14.4 PPG 9.8 RPG 4.7 BPG The funny part about this argument is that there is a high chance the Bobcats end up with one of these UK players.

First of all, Maggette's been terrible this year, as has Ty Thomas. Secondly, the Kemba argument cuts both ways. He leads the team in PER and Butler shut him down last year.

Couldn’t possibly disagree with this article more than I do… Kemba single handedly carried his team to the national title just last year Bismack Biyombo dominated Anthony Davis in the NIKE Hoops Summit last year (http://swishscout.com/?p=4902) Ty Thomas has a national title and was a top 5 NBA pick the following year Gerald Henderson was first team all ACC Cory Maggette is a 240 pound 10 year NBA vet who would absolutely man handle a bunch of 18 year olds Even a stiff like Gana Diop, with his size, would be a load for any college player to handle

lol I don't blame you, he's a freakin force

@JK Man, Anthony Davis had better not suck. I'm way overleveraged on that guy.

I think you are taking the unpopular side of the argument. Most knowledgeable NBA fans would think that a college team would not stand a chance against an NBA team. You are taking the other side. Among the intelligent NBA blogosphere, the argument of [this year’s best NCAA team] > [this year’s worst pro team] is dismissed because of the talent/skill/strength disparity. Being an intelligent NBA blogger yourself, you are familiar with the skill level of NBA players. I also assume that you haven’t forgotten how good players like Reggie Williams, Matt Carroll, Tyrus Thomas, etc. have looked playing in college. Since you know all of these things, I’m assuming you are just being a contrarian. I could be wrong of course, you could believe in Anthony Davis that much.

"Would" Kentucky beat Charlotte is a different question than "could" they--I would tend to say "no" to the former (assuming we're talking a one-game, who would win, scenario.) I would tend to probably say "yes" to the latter (assuming it's like a "could they steal a game in a seven-game series?" sort of question.) Also, it would be important to differentiate between a coached and officiated game, and a pickup game. In the former, I would like the Bobcats chances a lot more than the Wildcats. A group of pros, even without much talent, would do a much-better job with defensive rotations and floor spacing. They'd also make a higher percentage of open shots, of which they would get more attempts. In the latter, with less discipline and structure, I think Kentucky has a better chance. I think Charlotte is the worst team that I can remember seeing play. After they came to Minnesota and lost by 12, I remember thinking that the win felt worse than many of the season's losses. The Wolves played horrendous basketball and trailed at the half. Still, the game never seemed in doubt. Part of this is Kentucky, too. Anthony Davis and perhaps MKG are awesome players, but the Coach Cal formula (the one-and-done fueled factory) is not one that would match up well against a professional team--even a really bad one. College ball is chaotic--entire gameplans (successful ones) are built around a hectic pace and adrenaline-filled defensive decisions. This doesn't really work in the NBA, except for role players. At its best, it's Kenneth Faried. At its usual, it's Corey Brewer. In picking a college team in history that could compete with a terrible NBA team, I would probably look for ones that had either an unusual physical specimen (Shaq, Kareem) or ones that had upperclassmen on the talent tier of Davis and MKG. UNC's team with Stackhouse & Sheed, the sophomore Fab Five, and the '01 Blue Devils (Williams/Battier/Dunleavy/Boozer) come to mind. Enjoyed the post. I'm sure you're generating a ton of reactions.

@JK What does the word, "contrarian" mean to you?

Even assuming Davis, MKG, and Jones are veteran caliber NBAers right now, the 4th and 5th players on Charlotte would absolutely work the 4th and 5th best players on UK (Teague/Lamb/Miller). Kemba Walker, he of the 37% FG, looked pretty ok in college. Eduardo Najera was an All American and the best player on a good Oklahoma team. UK could beat the Bobcats just like the Bobcats could beat the Heat/Bulls/etc. I'm assuming this is just contrarian Ethan speaking though.

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  1. [...] then the prospect of Kentucky beating an NBA team becomes not so preposterous. I’ve suggested the Bobcats as possible fodder for Kentucky, only to keep hearing that Kemba Walker was a great college player who looks pretty ordinary in the [...]

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